In a brand new investor be aware revealed on January 29, 2025, Matt Hougan, Chief Funding Officer at Bitwise, questioned whether or not the historic four-year market cycle of Bitcoin may lastly be coming to an finish. His reasoning is rooted in seismic shifts in US coverage towards crypto, highlighted by a current government order from President Trump geared toward solidifying the nation’s management in digital property.
Might 2026 Buck The Bitcoin Bear Pattern?
Hougan’s note begins with an evidence of the so-called “four-year cycle,” the place Bitcoin has sometimes seen three years of considerable beneficial properties adopted by a pullback. This cycle, he explains, mirrors broader boom-bust patterns in conventional markets:“The four-year cycle in crypto is pushed by the identical forces that drive broader cycles of development and recession within the common economic system,” he wrote.
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These expansions, fueled by technological breakthroughs or elevated investor curiosity, typically result in over-leverage, often leading to fraud or industry-wide pressure. Finally, one thing “breaks” and triggers a market correction—such because the 2014 Mt. Gox collapse or the 2018 SEC crackdown on ICOs.
Hougan describes the present crypto upswing because the “Mainstream Cycle,” rising out of 2022’s “large deleveraging” brought on by failures like FTX, Three Arrows Capital, and others. In keeping with him, the newest bull part took off in March 2023, when Grayscale convincingly “gained the opening argument” in its authorized problem in opposition to the SEC over a spot Bitcoin ETF.
“Bitcoin was buying and selling at $22,218 when Grayscale mounted its argument. It’s buying and selling at $102,674 at the moment. The mainstream period has arrived.” As soon as a spot Bitcoin ETF was accepted and launched in January 2024, investor inflows surged, additional cementing Bitcoin’s acceptance amongst each retail and institutional gamers.
Probably the most placing part of Hougan’s evaluation is his examination of final week’s government order issued by President Trump. The order not solely deemed the event of the US digital asset ecosystem a “nationwide precedence,” nevertheless it additionally set in movement a clearer regulatory framework for crypto.
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“Final week, President Trump issued an government order that was so overwhelmingly bullish for the area that it’s making me marvel,” Hougan wrote, noting how the doc outlines plans for a possible “nationwide crypto stockpile” and encourages banks and monetary establishments to speed up their adoption of digital property.
Mixed with a now extra welcoming stance from the SEC, Hougan believes these measures may unleash trillions in new funding over the approaching years, far surpassing the a whole lot of billions that an ETF-driven market was already anticipated to generate.
Hougan’s evaluation acknowledges that Bitcoin has traditionally adopted its sample of eventual pullbacks after surging bull runs. However with Wall Avenue behemoths and main banks making ready to combine crypto at each degree, there’s a rising risk that the market could not face the normal plunge in 2026: “If it’s not till subsequent yr that we really feel these impacts, will we actually have a brand new ‘crypto winter’ in 2026?” he posited. “If BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is looking for $700k Bitcoin, are we actually going to see a 70% pullback?”
Whereas he concedes that leverage continues to construct within the system—citing an uptick in Bitcoin-backed lending applications, derivatives, and levered exchange-traded merchandise—he additionally highlights an more and more various pool of crypto traders. This variety, he argues, may dampen extreme drawdowns. “My guess is that we haven’t absolutely overcome the four-year cycle. Leverage will construct up because the bull market builds. Extra will seem. Unhealthy actors will emerge. And sooner or later, there may very well be a pointy pullback when the market will get over its skis,” Hougan argued.
Nevertheless, Hougan expects that any future market correction shall be “shorter and shallower” than earlier cycles. With the {industry}’s infrastructure now considerably extra strong and mainstream individuals treating crypto as a reliable asset class, a dramatic bear market akin to these of 2014 or 2018 could also be much less probably. “As for now, it’s full steam forward,” he concluded. “The crypto practice is leaving the station.”
At press time, BTC traded at $105,275.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com