Bitcoin is trading below the marginal cost required to sustain network expansion, according to reports. This has placed miners under growing financial pressure without yet triggering capitulation across the network.
At around $91,000, Bitcoin sits beneath the estimated full-cycle breakeven for large-scale miners operating in West Texas’ Wholesale Acquisition Hub [WAHA].
The data shows that all-in power and operational costs imply a breakeven closer to $95,000–$96,000 per BTC.
While efficient operators remain cash-flow positive, the gap between spot price and growth cost has begun to reshape miner behavior.
Growth pauses as breakeven rises
An analyst’s cost modeling based on WAHA power economics highlights a growing divergence between short-term survival and long-term sustainability.
Miners running efficient hardware can continue operating at lower operating expenses. However, when capital expenditure, downtime, and taxes are included, profitability narrows sharply at current prices.
Source: X
This analysis helps explain why network expansion has slowed. Hashrate growth, which had accelerated through much of 2024 and early 2025, has flattened in recent months. T
The pause suggests that new capital deployment is being deferred as the price fails to clear the threshold required to justify further investment.
Notably, the data shows a stall rather than a reversal. There is no broad hashrate decline, indicating miners are adapting rather than exiting.
Bitcoin miner balances remain stable despite margin pressure
On-chain data from Glassnode reinforces this picture. The Miner Net Position Change metric indicates a modest net accumulation of approximately 663 BTC in the latest reading, despite the price remaining below the estimated growth breakeven.
Historically, miner capitulation phases have been characterised by sustained, deeply negative net position changes as operators are compelled to liquidate their reserves to cover costs.
Source: Glassnode
That pattern is not visible in the current data. Instead, miners appear to be selectively managing balance sheets while maintaining operations.
This behavior suggests that stress is being absorbed internally rather than transmitted aggressively into the market through forced selling.
Bitcoin miner difficulty adjusts, but not decisively
Bitcoin’s difficulty has also begun to respond, registering a small downward adjustment of approximately 1.2%.
Source: Glassnode
While notable, the move remains modest compared with the deeper and repeated difficulty cuts that have historically accompanied true miner capitulation events.
The limited scale of the adjustment indicates that while some marginal capacity may be switching off, the network is not undergoing a wholesale reset.
Difficulty appears to be acting as a stabilizing mechanism rather than signaling structural weakness.
Stress without capitulation
The data points to a phase of miner stress characterized by adaptation rather than collapse.
Bitcoin is trading below the cost required to incentivize new growth, freezing expansion and compressing margins. However, existing infrastructure continues to operate.
This distinction matters. Miner capitulation has historically marked inflection points in Bitcoin’s market structure, often coinciding with network “healing” phases rather than price peaks.
The absence of broad capitulation signals suggests the current environment is better described as consolidation under pressure.
Bitcoin may briefly trade below its implied energy or growth cost, but the data shows that miners are adjusting behaviorally rather than capitulating outright.
For now, the network appears to be absorbing prior gains and recalibrating, not breaking.
Final Thoughts
- Bitcoin is trading below the estimated cost required to sustain new miner investment, freezing hashrate growth without triggering broad capitulation.
- On-chain data shows that miners are adapting through balance sheet management rather than forced selling, suggesting that network stress remains under control.
