Less than a week after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission granted Gemini Space Station Inc. a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license, the cryptocurrency exchange added prediction markets to its platform.
Gemini Predictions is now available via the company’s affiliated entity Gemini Titan. According to the Dec. 15 announcement, the platform will offer “event contracts that are simple yes or no questions on future events.” Such examples provided included “Will one Bitcoin end this year higher than $200k?” or “Will Elon Musk’s X end up paying the full $140 million fine to the European Commission in 2026?”
“Gemini Predictions leverages the wisdom of the crowd and the power of markets to more accurately forecast the future,” read the announcement. “They reward market participants for their truthful insights and also help them to better prepare for the future by aggregating and disseminating correct information.”
Gemini predictions launch details
The initial slate of markets is the usual sort: Would the Federal Reserve maintain the recently decreased interest rate; what would the price of Ethereum be by the end of the year; and whether President Donald Trump would release any of the Jeffrey Epstein files before December 20.
Gemini customers in the United States can now trade events using USD in their Gemini Exchange account. The prediction app is available on the web, iOS, and Android. Customers can also trade fee-free for a limited time as part of the launch promotion.
The Winklevoss twins—Cameron and Tyler—founded the Gemini crypto exchange in 2014. Gemini first applied for a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license in 2020, according to The Block. At the time, the application didn’t make it clear if Gemini was looking to launch a predictions market app.
Regulatory tides shifting in favor of prediction market exchanges
In recent history, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has been cautious and conservative in its dealings with prediction market exchanges. They banned Polymarket from operating in the US in 2022 alleging they were offering contracts to US customers without proper CFTC approval. The commission also fought against Kalshi’s offering of congressional control contracts, eventually dropping its appeal in the matter in May 2025.
Gemini was also the target of CFTC charges back in 2022 alleging that the company made false or misleading statements about its Bitcoin futures contract in 2017 to help launch it. That dispute resulted in a settlement wherein Gemini Trust paid a $5 million civil monetary penalty.
Under the second Trump administration, the CFTC has softened its stance. President Trump has positioned his administration as an ally to crypto and prediction markets. Gemini CEO Tyler Winklevoss praised Trump after they won their DCM license.
“Today’s approval marks the culmination of a 5-year licensing process and the beginning of a new chapter for Gemini,” said Tyler Winklevoss, per Coin Desk, before thanking the president for “ending the Biden Administration’s War on Crypto.”
“Prediction markets have the potential to be as big or bigger than traditional capital markets. Acting Chairman Pham understands this vision and its importance,” said Gemini President Cameron Winklevoss. ”Unlike her predecessor, Acting Chairman [Caroline] Pham has positioned the CFTC as a pro-business, pro-innovation regulator that will allow America to lead in these new and exciting markets.”
Gemini Titan now dives into the pool of CFTC-regulated venues legally allowed to offer event contracts, a market that CoinDesk notes so far has been “dominated by Kalshi.”
