Bitcoin’s anticipated recovery above is looking increasingly bleak due to the formation of a bearish flag. The leading cryptocurrency has fallen further below $74,000 in the past 24 hours, and one analyst believes the latest move is only another stage in a much larger decline.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $73,240, down about 3.2% on the day. That drop has made a bearish TradingView analysis by Xanrox more relevant, as the analyst had warned that Bitcoin could lose the lower region of its current structure and begin a wider move down to $44,000.
Bitcoin’s Bear Market Structure Is 70% Complete
According to an expert crypto analyst known as Xanrox on social media, Bitcoin’s bear market structure is about 70% complete. Xanrox’s prediction is built around the idea that Bitcoin has been moving through a large corrective structure since its all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025.
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Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s chart shows three separate bearish flag formations on the daily candlestick timeframe. The first is a small bearish flag, the second is a medium bearish flag, and the third is a larger bearish flag that is currently developing around the current trading range.
Elliott Wave count places Bitcoin’s entire price action since October in an ABC corrective pattern, with wave B now complete. That reading puts the Bitcoin bear market about 70% done, but the most painful portion is still ahead.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
The ultimate prediction is that the current Bitcoin correction will continue to play out for months in a defined path. The first major level in the roadmap is the lower boundary of the bearish flag, with the $71,000 region standing as the important level here. A breakdown below $71,000 would add strength to the bearish setup and could expose Bitcoin to another move to the previous early February low around $63,000.
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The entire forecast points to a deeper correction, with the chart showing Bitcoin moving through the stages of a corrective C-wave that might eventually bottom out at a downside target around $44,000. That level was identified by Xanrox as a strong point of control on the weekly candlestick chart, meaning it represents a high-volume zone that could attract price if it were to break below $63,000.
The timeline attached to the prediction stretches into the second half of the year. The projected bottom is expected around September or October 2026, followed by a stronger recovery through October, November, and December. The roadmap then points to a larger bull cycle after the correction ends, in 2027 and 2028, with Bitcoin potentially climbing to as high as $200,000 by 2028.
Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and former NASA researcher, has also cited October 2026 as his base-case bottom for Bitcoin’s bear market, in line with Xanrox’s timeline.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
